3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,605 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Manufactured
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,233/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,092
Tax + insurance
−$665
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$469
Net cashflow
$-993/mo
Annual
$-11,920/yr
Cap rate
3.31%
Cash-on-cash
-10.67%
DSCR
0.53
1% rule
0.56%
Cash to close
$111,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-993 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (36.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (44.0% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $223k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $28k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#42 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Lyon County School District (town): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #14 of 17 in NV (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Silver Stage Middle School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #62 of 109 statewide, top 58%, 329 students, 100% FRL); Silver Stage High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #67 of 131 statewide, top 53%, 333 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 42% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lyon County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $25k; list at $399k implies a 1496% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-T858DS9MQ8WK7W
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29