3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,513 sqft ·
Built 1949
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 137 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,861/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$254
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$391
Net cashflow
$10/mo
Annual
$123/yr
Cap rate
6.35%
Cash-on-cash
0.19%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($123/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (19.1% below list).
It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $186k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#83 in WA, #1,613 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
Ephrata School District (town): math 56% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #72 of 291 in WA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $109k; list at $230k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Ephrata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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