636 W Kern St

Dinuba, CA 93618

$1,850,000B

75 bd · 15.0 ba · 6,950 sqft · Built 1980 · MultiFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $32,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,702
• Tax + insurance: −$3,206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,779
• Net cashflow: $12,596/mo
• Annual: $151,147/yr
• Cap rate: 14.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.46%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $518,000

Investor read

• This is a 25 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.85M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($151k/yr) — positive. Per door: $504/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($32k rent vs $1.85M).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.79M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.79M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#517 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Dinuba Unified (town): math 26% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #215 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $518k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.7% in Dinuba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.