4 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,830 sqft ·
Built 1890
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 256 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,818/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,334
Tax + insurance
−$742
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,432
Net cashflow
$2,311/mo
Annual
$27,731/yr
Cap rate
12.52%
Cash-on-cash
22.26%
DSCR
1.99
1% rule
1.53%
Cash to close
$124,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $445k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $445k).
It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $392k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#116 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
RSU 13 (town): math 77% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #84 of 112 in ME (top 75%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
Zoned schools: South School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #209 of 294 statewide, top 75%, 265 students, 62% FRL); Oceanside Middle School (math 74% / reading 86%, grade A+, #59 of 85 statewide, top 71%, 349 students, 52% FRL); Oceanside High School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A, #75 of 108 statewide, top 83%, 525 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Knox County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).
Knox County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.4% in Rockland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,818/mo this rent would consume 145% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 279% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Kitchen counters
— Cluttered and needs cleaning
Minor: Bathroom fixtures
— Outdated and needs updating
Moderate: Exterior siding
— Weathered and needs repainting
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· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29