16576 S 1541 Rd

Stockton, MO 65785

$224,900F

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,314 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-464/mo
• Annual: $-5,574/yr
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.85%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (36.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (51.3% below list).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (51.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#456 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockton Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 359 students, 49% FRL); Stockton Middle (math 40% / reading 47%, grade D, #127 of 391 statewide, top 34%, 277 students, 42% FRL); Stockton High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 285 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.