16576 S 1541 Rd · Stockton, MO 65785

$224,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1970 1.00 ac lot $171/sqft · 63% above area Est $220k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming A-Frame cabin, where rustic character meets modern comfort. This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers modern style, efficient design, and versatile living space, making it ideal as a cozy full-time residence, weekend getaway, or income-generating short-term rental. This home can accommodate large families and sleep up to 12+ people. Interior Features include functional kitchen island with cooktop and bar seating for entertaining or casual meals. Stylish exposed beam ceilings and LED accent lighting. There is a spacious main floor bedroom with a bathroom. Loft style second bedroom that includes a lounge area and a half bath. The basement features game area, living area, and bar that has access to the large screened in porch. Exterior features include french doors from the kitchen that open directly onto the expansive deck blending indoor and outdoor spaces. An oversized two car garage for all your storage needs. And a boat launch less than a mile away. This home is a must see!! Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Led accent lighting
• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN ISLAND
• EXPOSED BEAM CEILINGS
• LED ACCENT LIGHTING
• SPACIOUS MAIN FLOOR BEDROOM
• LOFT STYLE SECOND BEDROOM
• LARGE SCREENED IN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (36.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (51.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (51.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#456 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockton Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 359 students, 49% FRL); Stockton Middle (math 40% / reading 47%, grade D, #127 of 391 statewide, top 34%, 277 students, 42% FRL); Stockton High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 285 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,480 (51.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.85%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 17.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,810
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: 2.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15225 E 1666th Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (-14%)	5mo	$145,000	$129	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $92,781
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $296,247
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65785

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,683

Max offer price $142,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-401	+0% $-464	+5% $-528	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-551	-5% $-508	+0% $-464	+5% $-421	+10% $-378
Rate	-1.0pp $-351	-0.5pp $-407	base $-464	+0.5pp $-523	+1.0pp $-582

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1064-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

   Welcome to this charming A-Frame cabin, where rustic character meets modern comfort. This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers modern style, efficient design, and versatile living space, making it ideal as a cozy full-time residence, weekend getaway, or income-generating short-term rental. This home can accommodate large families and sleep up to 12+ people. Interior Features include functional kitchen island with cooktop and bar seating for entertaining or casual meals. Stylish exposed beam ceilings and LED accent lighting. There is a spacious main floor bedroom with a bathroom. Loft style second bedroom that includes a lounge area and a half bath. The basement features game area, living area, and bar that has access to the large screened in porch. Exterior features include french doors from the kitchen that open directly onto the expansive deck blending indoor and outdoor spaces. An oversized two car garage for all your storage needs. And a boat launch less than a mile away. This home is a must see!! Schedule your showing today.

2. 2025-09-19
   status Active 1064-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

   Welcome to this charming A-Frame cabin, where rustic character meets modern comfort. This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers modern style, efficient design, and versatile living space, making it ideal as a cozy full-time residence, weekend getaway, or income-generating short-term rental. This home can accommodate large families and sleep up to 12+ people. Interior Features include functional kitchen island with cooktop and bar seating for entertaining or casual meals. Stylish exposed beam ceilings and LED accent lighting. There is a spacious main floor bedroom with a bathroom. Loft style second bedroom that includes a lounge area and a half bath. The basement features game area, living area, and bar that has access to the large screened in porch. Exterior features include french doors from the kitchen that open directly onto the expansive deck blending indoor and outdoor spaces. An oversized two car garage for all your storage needs. And a boat launch less than a mile away. This home is a must see!! Schedule your showing today.

3. 2025-08-07
   status Pending 1064-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

   Welcome to this charming A-Frame cabin, where rustic character meets modern comfort. This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers modern style, efficient design, and versatile living space, making it ideal as a cozy full-time residence, weekend getaway, or income-generating short-term rental. This home can accommodate large families and sleep up to 12+ people. Interior Features include functional kitchen island with cooktop and bar seating for entertaining or casual meals. Stylish exposed beam ceilings and LED accent lighting. There is a spacious main floor bedroom with a bathroom. Loft style second bedroom that includes a lounge area and a half bath. The basement features game area, living area, and bar that has access to the large screened in porch. Exterior features include french doors from the kitchen that open directly onto the expansive deck blending indoor and outdoor spaces. An oversized two car garage for all your storage needs. And a boat launch less than a mile away. This home is a must see!! Schedule your showing today.

4. 2025-08-02
   price $224,900 1064-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

   Welcome to this charming A-Frame cabin, where rustic character meets modern comfort. This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers modern style, efficient design, and versatile living space, making it ideal as a cozy full-time residence, weekend getaway, or income-generating short-term rental. This home can accommodate large families and sleep up to 12+ people. Interior Features include functional kitchen island with cooktop and bar seating for entertaining or casual meals. Stylish exposed beam ceilings and LED accent lighting. There is a spacious main floor bedroom with a bathroom. Loft style second bedroom that includes a lounge area and a half bath. The basement features game area, living area, and bar that has access to the large screened in porch. Exterior features include french doors from the kitchen that open directly onto the expansive deck blending indoor and outdoor spaces. An oversized two car garage for all your storage needs. And a boat launch less than a mile away. This home is a must see!! Schedule your showing today.

5. 2025-07-18
   listed $249,900 Active 1064-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

   Welcome to this charming A-Frame cabin, where rustic character meets modern comfort. This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers modern style, efficient design, and versatile living space, making it ideal as a cozy full-time residence, weekend getaway, or income-generating short-term rental. This home can accommodate large families and sleep up to 12+ people. Interior Features include functional kitchen island with cooktop and bar seating for entertaining or casual meals. Stylish exposed beam ceilings and LED accent lighting. There is a spacious main floor bedroom with a bathroom. Loft style second bedroom that includes a lounge area and a half bath. The basement features game area, living area, and bar that has access to the large screened in porch. Exterior features include french doors from the kitchen that open directly onto the expansive deck blending indoor and outdoor spaces. An oversized two car garage for all your storage needs. And a boat launch less than a mile away. This home is a must see!! Schedule your showing today.

6. 2021-07-05
   soldstatus 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Location, affordability and space all wrapped into this lake view fixer-upper. This 3 bed, 2 bath A-Frame home boasts 1,314 sq ft across the levels. The top level has a view of Stockton Lake. The house needs work, but your time and investment will be well worth it. The ~ 1 Ac property also has a 2 car garage, and quick access to a boat ramp, just south of the property. This home is located only 5 minutes south of Stockton which is a fantastic lake community in Southwest Missouri. Bring your hammer and your ideas, and give us a call on this property today!

7. 2021-07-05
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Location, affordability and space all wrapped into this lake view fixer-upper. This 3 bed, 2 bath A-Frame home boasts 1,314 sq ft across the levels. The top level has a view of Stockton Lake. The house needs work, but your time and investment will be well worth it. The ~ 1 Ac property also has a 2 car garage, and quick access to a boat ramp, just south of the property. This home is located only 5 minutes south of Stockton which is a fantastic lake community in Southwest Missouri. Bring your hammer and your ideas, and give us a call on this property today!

8. 2021-05-05
   listed $62,500 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Location, affordability and space all wrapped into this lake view fixer-upper. This 3 bed, 2 bath A-Frame home boasts 1,314 sq ft across the levels. The top level has a view of Stockton Lake. The house needs work, but your time and investment will be well worth it. The ~ 1 Ac property also has a 2 car garage, and quick access to a boat ramp, just south of the property. This home is located only 5 minutes south of Stockton which is a fantastic lake community in Southwest Missouri. Bring your hammer and your ideas, and give us a call on this property today!

9. 2021-05-04
   listed $62,500
10. 2021-04-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,506/yr (+$126/mo · 223.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$9,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,609
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3989
• State rank: #77 of 324 in MO

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #18379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,538

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 293.8984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+259.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-08-07 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $224,900 SOMO
• 2025-07-18 Listed $249,900 SOMO
• 2021-07-05 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-05 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2021-05-05 Listed $62,500 SOMO
• 2021-05-04 Listed $62,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $675 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.