6901 Old Stage Rd Unit 24

Gold Hill, OR 97502

$47,500B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1973 · Land · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax + insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$695
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $203/mo
• Annual: $2,432/yr
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.29%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 3.15%
• Cash to close: $13,300

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#220 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $48k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.4% in Gold Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.