6901 Old Stage Rd Unit 24 · Gold Hill, OR 97502

$47,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Land public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1973 $62/sqft · 11% below area Est $59k · 20% under $695/mo HOA · 46% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy home in the popular Nestled in the Hills senior manufactured home park. Situated on a spacious front lot with no homes directly in front, this property offers peaceful views and an added sense of privacy. The well-maintained yard is beginning to bloom with spring flowers and provides plenty of space for a garden or even a few fruit trees--perfect for enjoying the outdoors. A two-car carport includes built-in storage and a workbench, offering a great space for projects or hobbies. An additional outdoor shed provides even more convenient storage. Inside, the home includes a bonus room that is perfect for a home office, craft area, or hobby space. This versatile room could easily be converted back into an additional bedroom if desired, offering flexibility for future needs. With its quiet setting, open outlook, and practical features, this home offers comfortable living in a welcoming community.

Key facts

• Well-maintained yard
• Two-car carport
• Spacious front lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT LOT
• WELL-MAINTAINED YARD
• SPACE FOR A GARDEN
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• BUILT-IN STORAGE
• OUTDOOR SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.4% in Gold Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#220 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $48k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,225 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.29%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,326
• List price: $47,500
• Delta: -19.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $7,664
• Equity at exit: $7,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $33,564
• Equity at exit: $4,107

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$695
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,239

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $695 · $8,340/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $47,500 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,500 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,500 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,500 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,500 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $47,500 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $47,500 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   status $47,500 Pending 86 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $47,500 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $47,500 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-03-06
    listed $49,000 Active 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy home in the popular Nestled in the Hills senior manufactured home park. Situated on a spacious front lot with no homes directly in front, this property offers peaceful views and an added sense of privacy. The well-maintained yard is beginning to bloom with spring flowers and provides plenty of space for a garden or even a few fruit trees--perfect for enjoying the outdoors. A two-car carport includes built-in storage and a workbench, offering a great space for projects or hobbies. An additional outdoor shed provides even more convenient storage. Inside, the home includes a bonus room that is perfect for a home office, craft area, or hobby space. This versatile room could easily be converted back into an additional bedroom if desired, offering flexibility for future needs. With its quiet setting, open outlook, and practical features, this home offers comfortable living in a welcoming community.

12. 2020-04-25
    historical
13. 2006-11-01
    soldstatus $14,000
14. 2006-10-03
    listed $14,900
15. 2006-09-11
    listed $14,900
16. 2005-12-22
    historical
17. 2005-07-27
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 156.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − HOA: −$8,340
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $2,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $1,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Gold Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #14969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+146.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $49,000 MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2006-11-01 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MLSCO
• 2006-10-03 Listed $14,900 MLSCO
• 2006-09-11 Listed $14,900 MLSCO
• 2005-12-22 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2005-07-27 Listed $19,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+36.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $180 · +276.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.