168 Shoreham Way

Santa Rosa, CA 95401

$152,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,228/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax + insurance: −$253
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $709/mo
• Annual: $8,513/yr
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.00%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $42,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Albert F. Biella Elementary (215 students, 72% FRL); Hilliard Comstock Middle (434 students, 60% FRL); Piner High (1,361 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 22% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior siding — Light wear
• Minor: interior paint — Some wear