168 Shoreham Way · Santa Rosa, CA 95401

$152,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1978 Average condition Est $172k · 12% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Country, a well-established 55+ mobile home community known for its welcoming atmosphere and beautifully maintained, park-like setting. Offering approximately 1,536 square feet of living space, this spacious two-bedroom, two-bath home presents a wonderful opportunity to move right in and add your personal taste while enjoying a highly desirable location within the park. The floor plan is generous and thoughtfully laid out, featuring both a formal living room and a separate family roomproviding flexibility for entertaining, hobbies, or simply relaxing in your own space. The kitchen is a standout in size and function, offering abundant cabinet storage, stainless steel appliance

Key facts

• Open design
• Park like setting
• Formal living room

Tags

• PARK LIKE SETTING
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• ABUNDANT CABINET STORAGE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN DESIGN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: No HOALocated in a senior communityLocated in The Country park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking with interior access2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Cable availableInternet availablePublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in a parkDouble-wideMadison model/manufacturerAluminum skirting
• Construction: Aluminum skirt
• Exterior features: Covered deck/patioCarport awningShed(s)Close to clubhouseLandscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing gas rangeFree-standing refrigeratorMicrowaveBreakfast areaLaminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetLinoleumSimulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsBathtubShower stallTub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room living areaDining and living room combinedDeck attached to family room
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Albert F. Biella Elementary (215 students, 72% FRL); Hilliard Comstock Middle (434 students, 60% FRL); Piner High (1,361 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 22% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.00%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Salisbury Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	89
155 Shoreham Way	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (-0%)	9mo	$285,000	$187	86
88 Norfolk Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+2%)	10mo	$285,000	$183	80
83 Somerset Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	8mo	$152,500	$106	79
81 Somerset Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	10mo	$110,000	$76	77
32 Yorkshire Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-9%)	2mo	$250,000	$179	76
145 Stratford Way	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	4mo	$129,000	$96	72
186 Sequoia Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-11%)	2mo	$150,000	$110	66
176 Sequoia Cir	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$160,000	$111	65
98 Sequoia Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	65
139 Sequoia Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	10mo	$180,000	$125	62
16 Sequoia Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	10mo	$150,000	$112	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $14,056
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $45,325
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95401

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$190 /mo · $2,280/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $814	-5% $762	+0% $709	+5% $657	+10% $604
Rent	-10% $533	-5% $621	+0% $709	+5% $797	+10% $885
Rate	-1.0pp $786	-0.5pp $748	base $709	+0.5pp $670	+1.0pp $630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2135 Pebblewood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,400	$2.54	17d	1	0.73mi
1118 Dale Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,495	$1.96	24d	1	1.12mi
1316 New York Dr Unit NA Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	3.0	2200	$4,000	$1.82	24d	1	1.30mi
960 Doubles Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1038	$2,399	$2.31	16d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $152,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $152,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $152,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,000 Contingent (Show) 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $152,000 Contingent (Show) 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $152,000 Contingent (Show) 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,000 Contingent (Show) 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $152,000 Contingent (Show) 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $152,000 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-04-30
    price $152,000
20. 2026-02-10
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$2,280
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $6,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,555
• After-tax cash flow: $6,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained mobile home with average exterior and interior condition, offering a good opportunity for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Light wear
• Minor interior paint — Some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Light wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,861
• Household income: $93,615
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Asian 6% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -855.56%
• Current HPI: 253.1061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.37%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $152,000 BAREIS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $159,000 BAREIS