8018 18th Ln SE

Lacey, WA 98503

$249,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,036 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-222/mo
• Annual: $-2,665/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (26.1% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seven Oaks Elementary (480 students, 51% FRL); Nisqually Middle School (831 students, 57% FRL); River Ridge High School (1,476 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $250k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.