3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
816 sqft ·
Built 2006
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 96 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,204/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$215
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$253
Net cashflow
$80/mo
Annual
$964/yr
Cap rate
7.06%
Cash-on-cash
2.75%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($964/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (3.7% below list).
It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#779 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lewis Anna Woodbury Elementary School (math 33% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,684 of 2,144 statewide, top 79%, 525 students, 67% FRL); Fort Meade Middle/Senior High School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 786 students, 68% FRL).
Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-T9QST1FEE20KRF
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29