8695 S Taylor Ln

Three Points, AZ 85736

$147,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 684 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $519/yr
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $41,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $147k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($519/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (18.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $147k implies a 1370% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Three Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.