8695 S Taylor Ln · Three Points, AZ 85736

$147,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 684 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1997 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom property situated on a spacious, fully fenced lot with room to make it your own. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity, or a place to create your dream rural retreat, this home offers endless possibilities. The property features a circle driveway, three covered carport spaces with a metal roof over a concrete slab, and two large metal storage sheds providing plenty of room for tools, equipment, hobbies, or extra storage. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a dining area off the kitchen, a pantry, gas range, and a charming wood-burning stove that adds character and warmth. Bring your vision and creativity to unlock

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Concrete slab
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• THREE COVERED CARPORT SPACES
• METAL ROOF
• CONCRETE SLAB
• TWO LARGE METAL STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - GR1

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered parking; Covered/carport for 3 vehicles; Circular driveway
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Built as a manufactured home; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Metal roof; Shed(s); Dirt road access; East/west exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane baseboard heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Gas range; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($519/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Three Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $147k implies a 1370% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,522 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $82,765
• Equity at exit: $132,429

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $241,471
• Equity at exit: $285,589

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85736

• Home prices YoY: 29.2%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $85	+0% $43	+5% $2	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $-4	+0% $43	+5% $91	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $81	base $43	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $147,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable loss: −$2,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$484
• After-tax cash flow: $1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altar Valley Elementary District (4418)
• NCES district ID: 0404770
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,645
• Composite: 14.52/100
• National rank: #9420
• State rank: #202 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Three Points

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #24371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Points, AZ
• City population: 10,893
• Population (ZIP): 4,249

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scottish 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 78.66%
• Current HPI: 347.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1370.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $147,000 MLSSAZ
• 1989-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $921 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.