19667 American Ave #88

Hilmar-Irwin, CA 95324

$100,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,306/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $1,232/mo
• Annual: $14,778/yr
• Cap rate: 21.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.78%
• DSCR: 3.35
• 1% rule: 2.31%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hilmar Unified (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #890 of 1,400 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elim Elementary (943 students, 42% FRL); Hilmar Middle (504 students, 50% FRL); Hilmar High (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #434 of 1,170 statewide, top 39%, 693 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.