19667 American Ave #88 · Hilmar-Irwin, CA 95324

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $126k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and clean is this adorable 2/2 boasting 1344 SF with an open & cheerful floorplan. Beautiful custom shutters through out, ceiling fans, newer roof & HVAC system. Enclosed porch/patio area adds space for work out equipment, hobbies/crafts, play area for grandchild, office space. .. use your imagination. The great room space makes living so comfortable and invivitng especially for company. Inside laundry room with many cabinets/storage. Beautiful garden arounds its perimeter and an awesome storage shed with added electric. Low maintainence garden and wonderful carport area makes outdoor space relaxing and carefree. The minute you drive up it's love as first sight!

Key facts

• Garden
• Custom shutters
• Laundry room

Tags

• CUSTOM SHUTTERS
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GARDEN
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 19667 American Ave #88, Hilmar, CA 95324; Close to park clubhouse; directions available
• HOA & community: No association; Located in a senior community; Not a land-lease property

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; no garage; Total parking for 30 vehicles
• Utilities: Cable and internet available; Electric: 220 volts in laundry; Water: Other; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (double wide); Updated/remodeled and original condition elements; Made by HM Systems Inc., model Casa Grande; Built in 1989
• Construction: Wood skirting; Composition roof; Storage structures (shed[s])
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Ice maker; Plumbed for ice maker; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric range; Pantry closet; Laminate countertops; Dining bar and breakfast nook; kitchen/family combo
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Carpeted porch and porch steps; Dual-pane full windows; One fireplace (wood stove) in family room; Storage and shed(s) included on property
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in inside closet/room; 220V outlet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hilmar Unified (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #890 of 1,400 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.78%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,336
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19667 American Ave #88	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$74	99
19667 American Ave #68	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$126,000	$94	87
19667 American Ave #100	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$120,000	$83	83
19667 American	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	22mo	$140,000	$104	82
19960 American Ave #4	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$200,000	$160	72
19960 American Ave #31	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	16mo	$127,000	$94	72
19960 American Ave #6	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	17mo	$103,000	$77	72
19667 American Ave #92	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	21mo	$122,000	$106	59
19960 American Ave #26	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (-12%)	10mo	$112,000	$94	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $62,204
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $155,054
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95324

• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $286/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $1,232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,288	-5% $1,260	+0% $1,232	+5% $1,203	+10% $1,175
Rent	-10% $1,049	-5% $1,140	+0% $1,232	+5% $1,323	+10% $1,414
Rate	-1.0pp $1,282	-0.5pp $1,257	base $1,232	+0.5pp $1,206	+1.0pp $1,179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $286 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$40/mo · 166.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$286
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $13,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,347
• After-tax cash flow: $11,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hilmar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0617220
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,781
• Composite: 32.82/100
• National rank: #10742
• State rank: #890 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hilmar-Irwin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hilmar-Irwin, CA
• Population (ZIP): 7,862

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Russian 38% Portuguese 2% Arab 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.29%
• Current HPI: 227.2735
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $286 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.