309 Stolle Ln

Rosanky, TX 78941

$235,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,844/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$420
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,343/yr
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.2% in Rosanky — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.