309 Stolle Ln · Flatonia, TX 78941

$235,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1999 0.65 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE ! Peaceful Country Oasis Near Historic Smithville Escape to peace and tranquility just 6 miles outside of Smithville, where this beautifully remodeled retreat sits quietly at the back of a large, heavily wooded lot. Surrounded by mature trees and nature, this property offers privacy, serenity, and endless possibilities. The current home features a fully remodeled interior with an open floor plan, 2 bedrooms, and 1 bathroom, making it ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, guest house, or income-producing Airbnb. There is ample space at the front of the property to build a larger main home, while keeping the existing residence as a second dwelling. Outdoor living truly shines with a 900-square-foot wraparound deck, perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Take in beautiful sunset views from the covered patio area Additional features include: Recent roof, water heater & deck 50-amp RV/electric vehicle charger 10’ x 8’ storage building 20’ x 19’ covered semi-enclosed metal structure (ideal for a future barn or stable) 16’ x 10’ covered parking space Minutes from schools, shopping, and historic downtown Smithville. Part of Smithville ISD This is a rare opportunity to own a private country retreat with modern upgrades, expansion potential, and unbeatable tranquility — all just minutes from town.

Key facts

• Remodeled interior
• Open floor plan
• Water heater

Tags

• REMODELED INTERIOR
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• COVERED PATIO AREA
• RECENT ROOF
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Flatonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#599 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,419 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $13,611
• Equity at exit: $103,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $68,868
• Equity at exit: $157,172

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78941

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,862/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $200,514

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-129	+0% $-195	+5% $-262	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-268	+0% $-195	+5% $-122	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-135	base $-195	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $235,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $239,000 1418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1418 chars)

    NEW PRICE ! Peaceful Country Oasis Near Historic Smithville Escape to peace and tranquility just 6 miles outside of Smithville, where this beautifully remodeled retreat sits quietly at the back of a large, heavily wooded lot. Surrounded by mature trees and nature, this property offers privacy, serenity, and endless possibilities. The current home features a fully remodeled interior with an open floor plan, 2 bedrooms, and 1 bathroom, making it ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, guest house, or income-producing Airbnb. There is ample space at the front of the property to build a larger main home, while keeping the existing residence as a second dwelling. Outdoor living truly shines with a 900-square-foot wraparound deck, perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Take in beautiful sunset views from the covered patio area Additional features include: Recent roof, water heater & deck 50-amp RV/electric vehicle charger 10’ x 8’ storage building 20’ x 19’ covered semi-enclosed metal structure (ideal for a future barn or stable) 16’ x 10’ covered parking space Minutes from schools, shopping, and historic downtown Smithville. Part of Smithville ISD This is a rare opportunity to own a private country retreat with modern upgrades, expansion potential, and unbeatable tranquility — all just minutes from town.

15. 2026-03-17
    price $249,000 1418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1418 chars)

    NEW PRICE ! Peaceful Country Oasis Near Historic Smithville Escape to peace and tranquility just 6 miles outside of Smithville, where this beautifully remodeled retreat sits quietly at the back of a large, heavily wooded lot. Surrounded by mature trees and nature, this property offers privacy, serenity, and endless possibilities. The current home features a fully remodeled interior with an open floor plan, 2 bedrooms, and 1 bathroom, making it ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, guest house, or income-producing Airbnb. There is ample space at the front of the property to build a larger main home, while keeping the existing residence as a second dwelling. Outdoor living truly shines with a 900-square-foot wraparound deck, perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Take in beautiful sunset views from the covered patio area Additional features include: Recent roof, water heater & deck 50-amp RV/electric vehicle charger 10’ x 8’ storage building 20’ x 19’ covered semi-enclosed metal structure (ideal for a future barn or stable) 16’ x 10’ covered parking space Minutes from schools, shopping, and historic downtown Smithville. Part of Smithville ISD This is a rare opportunity to own a private country retreat with modern upgrades, expansion potential, and unbeatable tranquility — all just minutes from town.

16. 2026-01-26
    listed $257,000 Active 1418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1418 chars)

    NEW PRICE ! Peaceful Country Oasis Near Historic Smithville Escape to peace and tranquility just 6 miles outside of Smithville, where this beautifully remodeled retreat sits quietly at the back of a large, heavily wooded lot. Surrounded by mature trees and nature, this property offers privacy, serenity, and endless possibilities. The current home features a fully remodeled interior with an open floor plan, 2 bedrooms, and 1 bathroom, making it ideal as a primary residence, weekend getaway, guest house, or income-producing Airbnb. There is ample space at the front of the property to build a larger main home, while keeping the existing residence as a second dwelling. Outdoor living truly shines with a 900-square-foot wraparound deck, perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Take in beautiful sunset views from the covered patio area Additional features include: Recent roof, water heater & deck 50-amp RV/electric vehicle charger 10’ x 8’ storage building 20’ x 19’ covered semi-enclosed metal structure (ideal for a future barn or stable) 16’ x 10’ covered parking space Minutes from schools, shopping, and historic downtown Smithville. Part of Smithville ISD This is a rare opportunity to own a private country retreat with modern upgrades, expansion potential, and unbeatable tranquility — all just minutes from town.

17. 2025-06-18
    price
18. 2025-05-22
    listed Active
19. 2024-09-01
    historical $1,595
20. 2024-08-05
    price $1,595
21. 2024-06-21
    price $1,675
22. 2024-05-20
    listed $1,800
23. 2023-06-24
    historical
24. 2016-07-21
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2016-07-21
    soldstatus
26. 2016-07-11
    status Pending - Taking Backups
27. 2016-04-21
    listed $138,500 Active
28. 2015-08-25
    soldstatus
29. 2015-07-14
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2015-07-08
    status Pending
31. 2015-06-05
    listed $110,000 Active
32. 2011-12-12
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2011-12-09
    soldstatus
34. 2011-11-15
    status Pending
35. 2011-09-14
    listed $79,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,862 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$37/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,862
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,547
• After-tax cash flow: $-795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,794
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4776
• State rank: #333 of 826 in TX

Livability — Flatonia

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #599
• US rank: #11419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Current HPI: 228.938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+200.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $239,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $249,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $257,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-09-01 Rental Removed $1,595 ACTRIS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $1,595 ACTRIS
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $1,675 ACTRIS
• 2024-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,800 ACTRIS
• 2023-06-24 Rental Removed — ACTRIS
• 2016-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-21 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2016-07-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2016-04-21 Listed $138,500 Unlock MLS
• 2015-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-14 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-07-08 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2015-06-05 Listed $110,000 Unlock MLS
• 2011-12-12 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2011-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-11-15 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2011-09-14 Listed $79,500 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,862 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.