3151 Misty Morning Ln

Mesquite, TX 75126

$238,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-114/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $66,917

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-114/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (10.8% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willett El (725 students, 32% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.