3151 Misty Morning Ln · Mesquite, TX 75126

$238,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $234k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New! Super Cute! Single story floor plan with three bedroom and two full baths. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, and so much more! Welcome to Talty, Texas — where small-town charm meets modern living. Nestled just east of Dallas, Talty offers a peaceful, family-friendly atmosphere with convenient access to big-city amenities. This growing town is perfect for those looking to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle while staying close to Forney ISD schools, shopping, dining, and recreational opportunities. Our thoughtfully designed homes in Talty are built with you in mind, offering spacious floor plans, energy-efficient features, and

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Island kitchen
• Granite counters

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FEATURES
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-114/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willett El (725 students, 32% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,179 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,240
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3151 Misty Morning Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$238,990	$187	99
3710 Morning Dew Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	2mo	$233,990	$183	98
3167 Misty Morning Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	2mo	$237,490	$186	94
3171 Misty Morning Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	2mo	$224,490	$194	80
3147 Misty Morning Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	2mo	$240,990	$168	78
3163 Misty Morning Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+12%)	2mo	$239,490	$167	78
3706 Morning Dew Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	2mo	$257,990	$176	71
3135 Misty Morning Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	2mo	$256,490	$174	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-42,610
• Equity at exit: $35,634

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-50,910
• Equity at exit: $20,663

Cash invested: $66,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $237,616

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $73	+0% $-9	+5% $-92	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-94	+0% $-9	+5% $75	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $51	base $-9	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,748
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,242	$1.39	0d	1	1.02mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	3d	1	1.10mi
4624 Verdin St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,950	$1.40	0d	1	1.18mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	45d	1	1.28mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	1.38mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	26d	1	1.44mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	0d	1	1.44mi
4484 Bonney Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1206	$2,000	$1.66	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $238,990
3. 2026-03-26
   price $237,490
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $247,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,387
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,952
• Taxable loss: −$4,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$992
• After-tax cash flow: $878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Talty, TX is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest cosmetic improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $238,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $237,490 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $247,490 NTREIS