1871 NE 154th Ave

Williston Highlands, FL 32696

$239,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,798/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-211/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-211/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#851 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joyce M. Bullock Elementary School (662 students, 70% FRL); Williston Middle High School (math 44% / reading 36%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,119 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $239k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.