515 E 4th St

Rincon, GA 31326

$245,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,574/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#109 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rincon Elementary School (math 64% / reading 55%, grade B-, #130 of 1,228 statewide, top 11%, 1,047 students, 49% FRL); Ebenezer Middle School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C+, #58 of 470 statewide, top 12%, 934 students, 37% FRL); Effingham County High School (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 2,108 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $245k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Rincon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.