515 E 4th St · Rincon, GA 31326

$245,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1970 0.45 ac lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $276k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home sits on nearly half an acre with a spacious fenced backyard, brand new back deck, carport, and storage shed already in place. Major updates have already been handled, including a roof that's approximately 4 years old, HVAC replaced around 3 years ago, and Ram Jack work completed under the home. The lot offers plenty of usable outdoor space with room for entertaining, hobbies, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences while still offering a more spacious setting than many in-town properties. Adding even more value, the property has a proven rental history, making it an appealing opportunity for investors or buyers seeking a home with established income-producing potential. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a long-term rental, or a property with flexibility for the future, this home offers options.

Key facts

• Carport
• Storage shed
• Usable outdoor space

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• BACK DECK
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• ROOM FOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Located in H H Sanders subdivision; Zoned R-4
• Exterior features: Property has a view

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Rincon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#109 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rincon Elementary School (math 64% / reading 55%, grade B-, #130 of 1,228 statewide, top 11%, 1,047 students, 49% FRL); Ebenezer Middle School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C+, #58 of 470 statewide, top 12%, 934 students, 37% FRL); Effingham County High School (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 2,108 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $245k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,722 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,015
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -11.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Shaw St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	10mo	$175,000	$108	52
47 Talmadge Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-14%)	13mo	$191,000	$142	36
205 Shaw St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	23mo	$224,500	$154	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-50,925
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-66,535
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31326

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $226,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-46	+0% $-131	+5% $-216	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-209	+0% $-131	+5% $-53	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-69	base $-131	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Tyler St Rincon, GA	3.0	1.0	1138	$1,700	$1.49	25d	1	0.25mi
126 Smithfield Dr Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,850	$1.43	45d	1	0.43mi
135 Smithfield Dr Unit B Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,850	$1.43	45d	1	0.46mi
122 Smithfield Dr Unit B Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,850	$1.43	45d	1	0.48mi
122 Smithfield Dr Unit A Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,700	$1.31	45d	1	0.48mi
122 Smithfield Dr Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,700	$1.31	15d	1	0.48mi
129 Smithfield Dr Unit A Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,600	$1.37	15d	1	0.55mi
128 Karima Cir Rincon, GA	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,600	$1.47	45d	1	0.69mi
302 Parade Ct Unit 310 Rincon, GA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	25d	1	0.70mi
101 Smithfield Dr Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	45d	5	0.72mi
506 Windsong Dr Rincon, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$2,199	$1.14	45d	1	0.73mi
622 Plantation Dr Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,900	$1.23	45d	1	0.76mi
408 Seabreeze Dr Rincon, GA	4.0	2.5	1928	$2,250	$1.17	25d	1	0.78mi
440 Weisenbaker Rd Rincon, GA	3.0	1.0	1614	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.82mi
176 Barfield Way Rincon, GA	3.0	2.5	1745	$1,800	$1.03	25d	1	0.83mi
162 Barfield Way Rincon, GA	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,800	$1.07	15d	1	0.87mi
711 Plantation Dr Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,000	$1.27	45d	1	0.98mi
123 Susan Dr Rincon, GA	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	23d	1	1.07mi
501 W 9th St Unit 1369214P Rincon, GA	3.0	1.0	1291	$2,504	$1.94	23d	1	1.09mi
103 W 15th St Rincon, GA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	25d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   This home sits on nearly half an acre with a spacious fenced backyard, brand new back deck, carport, and storage shed already in place. Major updates have already been handled, including a roof that's approximately 4 years old, HVAC replaced around 3 years ago, and Ram Jack work completed under the home. The lot offers plenty of usable outdoor space with room for entertaining, hobbies, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences while still offering a more spacious setting than many in-town properties. Adding even more value, the property has a proven rental history, making it an appealing opportunity for investors or buyers seeking a home with established income-producing potential. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a long-term rental, or a property with flexibility for the future, this home offers options.

9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $250,000 New 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    This home sits on nearly half an acre with a spacious fenced backyard, brand new back deck, carport, and storage shed already in place. Major updates have already been handled, including a roof that's approximately 4 years old, HVAC replaced around 3 years ago, and Ram Jack work completed under the home. The lot offers plenty of usable outdoor space with room for entertaining, hobbies, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences while still offering a more spacious setting than many in-town properties. Adding even more value, the property has a proven rental history, making it an appealing opportunity for investors or buyers seeking a home with established income-producing potential. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a long-term rental, or a property with flexibility for the future, this home offers options.

20. 2026-05-06
    listed $250,000 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    This home sits on nearly half an acre with a spacious fenced backyard, brand new back deck, carport, and storage shed already in place. Major updates have already been handled, including a roof that's approximately 4 years old, HVAC replaced around 3 years ago, and Ram Jack work completed under the home. The lot offers plenty of usable outdoor space with room for entertaining, hobbies, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences while still offering a more spacious setting than many in-town properties. Adding even more value, the property has a proven rental history, making it an appealing opportunity for investors or buyers seeking a home with established income-producing potential. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, a long-term rental, or a property with flexibility for the future, this home offers options.

21. 2020-01-03
    historical
22. 2020-01-03
    historical
23. 2019-07-03
    listed $139,900
24. 2019-07-03
    listed $139,900
25. 2007-01-10
    soldstatus $97,500
26. 2006-01-16
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $-177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

Livability — Rincon

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #8380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon, GA
• County: Effingham County · 68,439 people
• City population: 23,940
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 23,940
• Household income: $83,145
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 503.0

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.63%
• Current HPI: 219.0064
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+145.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $245,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $245,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $250,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2020-01-03 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2020-01-03 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listed $139,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listed $139,900 Hive MLS
• 2007-01-10 Sold (MLS) $97,500 Hive MLS
• 2006-01-16 Listed $99,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $184 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.