1526 Bills Creek Rd

Lake Lure, NC 28746

$165,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-82/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-82/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#351 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pinnacle Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 234 students, 99% FRL); R-S Middle School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 574 students, 100% FRL); R-S Central High School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 758 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 0.9% in Lake Lure — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.