1526 Bills Creek Rd · Lake Lure, NC 28746

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1890 2.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a sprawling 2.6 acre lot in Lake Lure, this character-filled home offers the peaceful retreat you’ve been looking for with the functional space you need. Beyond the classic aesthetic, the interior layout is surprisingly adaptable. The home features a versatile bonus room on the main level that's perfect for a dedicated home office. Downstairs, the basement area provides even more potential, ready to serve as a second office, quiet den, or hobby space. Whether you need room for remote work, guests, or storage, this home has you covered. Outside, the potential continues with multiple outbuildings and workshop areas. It is the ultimate setup for a craftsman, mechanic, or home

Key facts

• 2.6 acre lot
• Versatile bonus room
• Workshop areas

Tags

• 2.6 ACRE LOT
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• WORKSHOP AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 2.6-acre lot
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family residence; Site-built construction; One story; 1280 total living area
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Basement and crawl space foundation; Site built construction
• Exterior features: Outbuilding, shed(s), and workshop on property; Publicly maintained road access; Gravel and paved road surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall furnace; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Interior-entry basement; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-82/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 0.9% in Lake Lure — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#351 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pinnacle Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 234 students, 99% FRL); R-S Middle School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 574 students, 100% FRL); R-S Central High School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 758 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 60% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,424 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $76,259
• Equity at exit: $134,661

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $222,350
• Equity at exit: $276,701

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28746

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $820/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $163,793

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $40	+0% $-7	+5% $-54	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-60	+0% $-7	+5% $46	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $35	base $-7	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-02-12
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$533/yr (+$44/mo · 65.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$820
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$704
• After-tax cash flow: $622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rutherford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704080
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,490
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #4753
• State rank: #98 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lake Lure

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #13888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rutherford County · 2,744 people
• City population: 2,744
• Metro: Forest City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 2,744
• Household income: $70,469
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 34.0

Population outlook (Rutherford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,695 people
• By 2030: 61,670 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 57,212 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 52,763 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 44,493 · -30.1%
• By 2100: 38,127 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutherford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.8 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.82%
• Current HPI: 351.5648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Forest City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $165,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $820 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.