3926 Jimson Ave

Venus, TX 76084

$434,990D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,097 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$115
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-812/mo
• Annual: $-9,748/yr
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.00%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $121,797

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-812 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (33.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (43.9% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J A Vitovsky El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 646 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 22% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Midlothian ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.