3926 Jimson Ave · Venus, TX 76084

$434,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,097 sqft · Land · 137 Days on market

Built 2025 5,998 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the Magnolia—a beautifully designed Beazer Home where style meets comfort. From the moment you step inside, a breathtaking foyer sets the tone for a home that’s both stunning and inviting. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home features a study, fireplace, and a covered patio, all situated on a north-facing homesite. The first-floor foyer offers a warm welcome to visitors, while the thoughtfully designed layout ensures space for every part of your life. Designed with the latest trends in mind, this home showcases quartz countertops, rich hardwood flooring, and striking 42-inch cabinetry. Every Beazer home is certified by the Department of Energy as a Zero Energy Ready

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Study
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• BREATHTAKING FOYER
• COVERED PATIO
• STUDY
• FIREPLACE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-812 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (33.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (43.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J A Vitovsky El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 646 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 22% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Midlothian ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,038 (43.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.00%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $107,149
• Equity at exit: $310,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $346,198
• Equity at exit: $598,467

Cash invested: $121,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,954/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,469

Max offer price $291,488

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-566	-5% $-689	+0% $-812	+5% $-935	+10% $-1,059
Rent	-10% $-1,005	-5% $-909	+0% $-812	+5% $-716	+10% $-620
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-702	base $-812	+0.5pp $-925	+1.0pp $-1,040

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,748
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $434,990
3. 2026-02-26
   price $440,990
4. 2026-01-13
   price $439,990
5. 2025-12-12
   price $449,990
6. 2025-12-05
   price $451,990
7. 2025-11-26
   price $449,990
8. 2025-11-17
   listed $474,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,954 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,960 · $663/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,006/yr (+$501/mo · 307.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,366
• − Property taxes: −$1,954
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$12,654
• Taxable loss: −$17,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,303
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $434,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $440,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $439,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $449,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $451,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $449,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $474,990 NTREIS