102 E Arch St

Shamokin, PA 17872

$52,000B

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,910 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,169/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $492/mo
• Annual: $5,907/yr
• Cap rate: 17.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.57%
• DSCR: 2.81
• 1% rule: 2.25%
• Cash to close: $14,560

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $52k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($360 loan paydown + $990 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#887 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shamokin Area El Sch (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,146 of 1,518 statewide, top 76%, 832 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Ms (math 12% / reading 40%, grade F, #412 of 512 statewide, top 81%, 346 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Hs (math 42% / reading 30%, grade F, #300 of 437 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 57% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 11.4% in Shamokin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.