811 NE Front St

Millsap, TX 76066

$169,900D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,368 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Pending · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$536
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-990/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-990/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (8.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,044 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, crime D-.
• Millsap ISD (rural): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #147 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.3% in Millsap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?