1311 Needham Ave

New York, NY 10469

$485,000C+

None bd · None ba · 2,712 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,781/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$879
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,214
• Net cashflow: $1,144/mo
• Annual: $13,730/yr
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $572/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $485k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $441k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $485k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,781/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 3706% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?