1311 Needham Ave · New York, NY 10469

$485,000

None bd · None ba · 2,712 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1910 2,375 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

short sale vacant 2 family property with finished basement and private driveway needs a complete renovation. NO Access to property

Key facts

• 2,375 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $572/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $485k).
• Recommended offer: $441k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,781/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 3706% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $485k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $441,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.70%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $976,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3722 Bronxwood Ave	0.31mi	3/—	2,695 (-1%)	3mo	$847,000	$314	82
1012 E 225th St	0.46mi	5/2.0	2,760 (+2%)	2mo	$850,000	$308	74
3957 Paulding Ave	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,600 (-4%)	3mo	$950,000	$365	69
1060 E 228th St	0.59mi	6/3.0	2,560 (-6%)	1mo	$1,165,000	$455	62
3106 Eastchester Rd	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,717 (+0%)	9mo	$920,000	$339	62
947 E 229th St	0.71mi	5/2.0	2,730 (+1%)	6mo	$850,000	$311	61
756 E 225th St	0.69mi	7/3.0	2,786 (+3%)	4mo	$950,000	$341	60
820 S Oak Dr	0.68mi	4/4.0	2,481 (-8%)	7mo	$866,250	$349	48
710 E 213th St	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,500 (-8%)	10mo	$900,000	$360	48
3604 Willett Ave	0.73mi	7/3.0	3,060 (+13%)	5mo	$1,188,000	$388	40
679 E 221st St	0.74mi	7/3.0	2,320 (-14%)	2mo	$1,000,000	$431	40
3300 Holland Ave	0.74mi	6/2.0	2,348 (-13%)	7mo	$920,000	$392	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $2,253
• Equity at exit: $72,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $129,380
• Equity at exit: $41,934

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10469

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$611 /mo · $7,330/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,214
• Net cashflow: $1,144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,333

Max offer price $485,000

Occupancy floor 75%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	—	$5,780
Total (2 units)			$5,781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2023-12-09
   status Pending
2. 2023-09-08
   price $485,000
3. 2023-08-24
   listed $600,000 Active
4. 1996-07-03
   soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,330 · $611/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,763 · $647/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$7,330
• − Insurance: −$3,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,550
• − Management: −$5,550
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable income: $6,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $12,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 68,521
• Household income: $76,020
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3706.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 9%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -524.76%
• Current HPI: 321.9213
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+142.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $485,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-24 Listed $600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,330 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.