407 Pine Ln

Tolar, TX 76476

$230,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,771/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,214/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $152 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#146 in TX, #4,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tolar ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #131 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tolar El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 393 students, 39% FRL); Tolar J H (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 201 students, 36% FRL); Tolar H S (math 67% / reading 52%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 284 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Tolar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.