407 Pine Ln · Tolar, TX 76476

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1940 0.29 ac lot Est $298k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fall in love with the perfect blend of vintage charm and modern luxury in this jaw-dropping 1940s beauty, completely transformed with over $100,000 in high-end renovations. From the moment you arrive, the inviting covered front porch sets the tone for the warm elegance waiting inside. The open-concept design was made for entertaining, featuring rich custom hardwood cabinetry, sleek quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a dramatic 8-foot island that anchors the heart of the home. Every detail was curated to create a space that feels both sophisticated and effortlessly livable. Behind the walls, no expense was spared with all-new plumbing, electrical, roof, high-efficiency SEER

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• CUSTOM HARDWOOD CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 8-FOOT ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA, and other financing types
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized carport (2 covered spaces); Driveway parking; Boat parking
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Residential property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 1940 (preowned); Wood and other construction materials; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered deck; Outdoor living center; Chain link fencing; Landscaped yard; Large backyard with grass

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, separate vanities, sitting area, and walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms with split-bedroom layout and walk-in closets
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area and washer hookup; Drip/dry area and space for a freezer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Tolar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#146 in TX, #4,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tolar ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #131 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tolar El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 393 students, 39% FRL); Tolar J H (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 201 students, 36% FRL); Tolar H S (math 67% / reading 52%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 284 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $152 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,054 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,490
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9217 Parkview Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+3%)	2mo	$330,000	$204	76
944 Huckleberry Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+4%)	1mo	$345,000	$212	74
9150 Parkview Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-2%)	2mo	$273,000	$177	73
9135 Parkview Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-2%)	2mo	$325,000	$211	70
260 Peace Lily Way	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (-3%)	3mo	$260,000	$170	69
489 Peace Lily Way	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (+2%)	5mo	$285,000	$178	66
420 Redbud Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+12%)	2mo	$359,900	$204	64
810 Acadia Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-6%)	6mo	$260,000	$176	62
9108 Parkview Cir	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,711 (+9%)	0mo	$325,000	$190	55
472 Peace Lily Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+13%)	1mo	$298,000	$168	53
9142 Parkview Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	2mo	$299,000	$167	51
1418 Oleander Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (+9%)	2mo	$345,888	$201	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-12,484
• Equity at exit: $67,547

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $11,701
• Equity at exit: $81,806

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76476

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,375/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,899

Max offer price $212,126

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-36	+0% $-101	+5% $-166	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-171	+0% $-101	+5% $-31	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-43	base $-101	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 E 3rd St Tolar, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,895	$1.40	9d	1	0.08mi
105 E 6th St Tolar, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	26d	1	0.15mi
200 Cedar Ln Tolar, TX	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,850	$1.05	26d	1	0.23mi
116 Donley St Tolar, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,500	$1.27	14d	1	0.29mi
121 Emerson Ln Tolar, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	45d	1	0.31mi
811 Tolar Hwy Unit 121 Tolar, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	45d	1	0.32mi
535 Calla Lily Way Tolar, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,550	$1.32	45d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $230,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active Option Contract 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active Option Contract 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $230,000 Active Option Contract 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active Option Contract 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $230,000 Active Option Contract 9 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $230,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-23
   listed $230,000 Active
10. 2025-06-17
    soldstatus
11. 1986-10-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,375 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,834/yr (+$153/mo · 77.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,375
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,261
• After-tax cash flow: $46/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tolar ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,351
• Composite: 45.4/100
• National rank: #2629
• State rank: #131 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tolar

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #4139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tolar, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,638

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Current HPI: 308.4789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,375 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.