Colina Plan

Naples, FL 34114

$849,999F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,861 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 207 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,240
• Tax + insurance: −$1,983
• HOA: −$435
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$848
• Net cashflow: $-5,467/mo
• Annual: $-65,603/yr
• Cap rate: 0.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.69%
• DSCR: 0.12
• 1% rule: 0.34%
• Cash to close: $333,183

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $850k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-66k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (53.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (52.5% below list).
• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $399k (53.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 584 students, 73% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 1267 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 2.4% in Naples — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,040/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 21% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.