243 Goat Town Rd

Ewing, VA 24248

$225,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,237 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,233/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-380/mo
• Annual: $-4,556/yr
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (45.2% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#528 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flatwoods Elementary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 302 students, 83% FRL); Pennington Middle (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 100% FRL); Lee High (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B-, #226 of 319 statewide, top 72%, 781 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 58% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $225k implies a 1224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.