243 Goat Town Rd · Ewing, VA 24248

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,237 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1971 1.00 ac lot $101/sqft · 80% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful brick home has 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, living room, formal dining, family room, kitchen, plus a partial basement with walk out door. The primary bathroom has a walk in shower and two bowl sink, the guest bathroom has a shower/tub combination. The guttering and metal soffits were put on about 2 years old, the windows were installed by Window World about 6 years ago and have double pane - double tilt windows. There are 2 fireplaces, there is a line for gas to the home, making propane easily accessible. The views are breathtaking from this home. The basement offers a cooking area with a hook up for cook stove for canning vegetables. The basement has lots of shelves to s

Key facts

• Cooking area
• Partial basement
• Double pane windows

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• WALK IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• COOKING AREA
• CONCRETE PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; 2,237 building area (per tax records)
• Construction: Brick and frame construction
• Exterior features: Storage structure; Level lot; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Propane heating option; Electric heating; Central cooling; 2 fireplaces with gas logs
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (45.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#528 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flatwoods Elementary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 302 students, 83% FRL); Pennington Middle (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 100% FRL); Lee High (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B-, #226 of 319 statewide, top 72%, 781 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 58% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $225k implies a 1224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $123,338 (45.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,098,791
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -79.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $15,261
• Equity at exit: $114,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $73,393
• Equity at exit: $187,377

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24248

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $964/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,714

Max offer price $157,936

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-316	+0% $-380	+5% $-443	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-428	+0% $-380	+5% $-331	+10% $-282
Rate	-1.0pp $-266	-0.5pp $-322	base $-380	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $225,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
19. 2026-05-11
    listed $225,000 Active 1186-char remark
20. 2003-03-05
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$881/yr (+$73/mo · 91.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$964
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$8,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ewing

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #528
• US rank: #24156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,330

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.02%
• Current HPI: 138.4971
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1223.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $225,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2003-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $964 · +42.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.