3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,676 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 88 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,879
Tax + insurance
−$533
HOA
−$100
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,050
Net cashflow
$438/mo
Annual
$5,251/yr
Cap rate
7.25%
Cash-on-cash
3.42%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$153,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (8.9% below list).
It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($516k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $500k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#256 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Aguila Elementary District (4249) (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #215 of 501 in AZ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Aguila Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 123 students, 98% FRL).
Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $18k; list at $549k implies a 3037% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-TEAHG0F7YYQJGR
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29