51340 W Iver Rd · Aguila, AZ 85320

$549,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1998 5.00 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• 8 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with annual fee of $1,200; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Runway access within the community; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 8 open parking spaces; 8 covered parking spaces; 8 garage spaces; RV access/parking; RV garage; Hangar; Over-height garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (septic installed and connected); Propane
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Stucco and other exterior materials; Foam roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Outdoor storage; Block fencing; Sprinklers in rear; Desert front landscaping; Natural desert in back; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Possible up to 5 bedrooms; Master bedroom present
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Breakfast bar; Separate shower and tub; Dual-pane windows; Free-standing fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#256 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aguila Elementary District (4249) (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #215 of 501 in AZ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aguila Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #505 of 1,109 statewide, top 47%, 123 students, 98% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($516k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $549k implies a 3037% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $500,000 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $57,239
• Equity at exit: $207,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $212,783
• Equity at exit: $292,764

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85320

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,656/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,446

Max offer price $549,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51207 W Iver Rd Aguila, AZ	3.0	2.0	2055	$5,000	$2.43	1d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Active
2. 2026-03-20
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
3. 2026-03-11
   price $549,000
4. 2026-02-27
   listed $599,000 Active
5. 2023-06-21
   historical
6. 2017-04-28
   historical
7. 2016-10-21
   listed $469,000 Active
8. 2016-05-11
   historical
9. 2015-10-27
   price $379,000
10. 2013-11-04
    listed $399,000 Active
11. 2011-08-14
    historical
12. 2011-02-11
    listed $569,999 Active
13. 2011-02-01
    historical
14. 2010-02-02
    listed $585,000
15. 2010-02-02
    listed $585,000 Active
16. 1990-06-27
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,656 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,656 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$3,656
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$3,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$942
• After-tax cash flow: $6,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aguila Elementary District (4249)
• NCES district ID: 0400480
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,507
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #9763
• State rank: #215 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Aguila

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #23150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 315

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 41% Native American 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Current HPI: 111.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3037.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $549,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $599,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-21 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-10-21 Listed $469,000 ARMLS
• 2016-05-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-10-27 Price Changed $379,000 ARMLS
• 2013-11-04 Listed $399,000 ARMLS
• 2011-08-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-02-11 Listed $569,999 ARMLS
• 2011-02-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-02-02 Listed $585,000 ARMLS
• 2010-02-02 Listed $585,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,656 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.