10123 Canoe Dr

Union, KY 41091

$274,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $287/mo
• Annual: $3,448/yr
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in KY, #2,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Longbranch Elementary School (math 60% / reading 61%, grade B-, #31 of 676 statewide, top 5%, 867 students, 26% FRL); Ballyshannon Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #27 of 217 statewide, top 12%, 633 students, 28% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 469 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.4% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.