10123 Canoe Dr · Union, KY 41091

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1950 1.57 ac lot Est $402k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hard to find home in Union at this price point! 3 BR, 2 full bath ranch with equipped kitchen, oversized attached garage, workshop, large covered deck and gazebo. 1813 Sq. Ft. per Realist. Separate detached 1 car garage building/shed for your toys or lawn equipment. Feel like you are in the country with your large 1.57 acre lot but the convenience of having I-71/75 and shopping only minutes away. Hurry!

Key facts

• Gazebo
• Large lot
• Large covered deck

Tags

• EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ATTACHED GARAGE
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• GAZEBO
• DETACHED GARAGE BUILDING
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached and detached garage options; Garage faces side; Off-street parking; Driveway; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Cistern water; Septic tank; Cable available; Propane available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Built in 1950; Metal roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Rolling slope; Gazebo; Workshop (separate structure); Vinyl clad windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (15 x 10); Bedroom 2 (13 x 11); Bedroom 3 (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Concrete flooring in workshop
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath (8 x 6); Second bathroom (9 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Family room; Workshop with concrete flooring; Covered porch; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.4% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#79 in KY, #2,521 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Longbranch Elementary School (math 60% / reading 61%, grade B-, #31 of 676 statewide, top 5%, 867 students, 26% FRL); Ballyshannon Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #27 of 217 statewide, top 12%, 633 students, 28% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 469 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $249,500 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $402,486
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6837 Green Isle Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (+2%)	7mo	$429,000	$233	55
2316 O'clery Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (-4%)	4mo	$415,000	$239	55
6829 Green Isle Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,763 (-3%)	8mo	$453,500	$257	53
3324 Mackenzie Ct Unit B	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-9%)	6mo	$288,717	$175	52
6805 Green Isle Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-10%)	1mo	$375,000	$230	51
3320 Mackenzie Ct Unit 716A	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-9%)	9mo	$313,400	$190	50
3316 Mackenzie Ct Unit 716B	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-9%)	9mo	$286,963	$174	50
4233 Aine Dr Unit 709A	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-9%)	9mo	$309,501	$187	49
2312 O Clery Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,687 (-7%)	6mo	$374,168	$222	48
6800 Green Isle Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (-6%)	5mo	$422,000	$246	48
6139 Vintage Fleet Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,040 (+12%)	5mo	$444,900	$218	47
2301 O Clery Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+14%)	6mo	$372,389	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-26,342
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $239
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41091

• Active inventory: 469
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,531/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,131

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4208 Aine Dr Union, KY	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,495	$1.51	17d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   status $274,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $274,900 Pending 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $274,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-15
   listed $274,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,531 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$833/yr (+$69/mo · 54.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$1,531
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$1,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$276
• After-tax cash flow: $3,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Union

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 24,371

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.29%
• Current HPI: 175.3571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $274,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,531 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.