4545 Winding River Cir

Stockton, CA 95219

$599,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,493 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$729
• HOA: −$52
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$850
• Net cashflow: $-725/mo
• Annual: $-8,696/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $405k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $405k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claudia Landeen (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 525 students, 77% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $424k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?