4545 Winding River Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$599,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,493 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1979 7,802 sqft lot $240/sqft · at area comps Est $616k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in one of the most established and desirable Stockton neighborhoods, Winding River Circle, this home offers comfort and value. Featuring a 3 year old redone pool & spa, it's perfect for entertaining or unwinding in your own backyard. With this strong market positioning home owners will enjoy the added benefit of immediate equity.

Key facts

• 7,802 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $405k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $405k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claudia Landeen (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 525 students, 77% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $424k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,766 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $616,235
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -2.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4545 Winding River Cir	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,493 (0%)	0mo	$600,000	$241	100
2918 Snowbrook Ct	0.07mi	5/3.5	2,461 (-1%)	18mo	$548,000	$223	77
4430 Winding River Cir	0.14mi	5/3.0	2,374 (-5%)	10mo	$668,000	$281	77
4301 Boulder Creek Cir	0.18mi	5/3.0	2,390 (-4%)	18mo	$605,000	$253	70
4240 Pinehurst Cir	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,390 (-4%)	1mo	$670,000	$280	62
4119 Saint Andrews Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,572 (+3%)	17mo	$825,000	$321	52
3611 Longcove Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,443 (-2%)	19mo	$788,000	$323	45
3338 Heatherbrook Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,390 (-4%)	18mo	$600,000	$251	45
2565 Michaelangelo	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,345 (-6%)	15mo	$560,000	$239	44
6863 Brook Falls Cir	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,520 (+1%)	21mo	$705,000	$280	42
6777 Brook Falls Cir	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,311 (-7%)	10mo	$545,000	$236	41
3395 Willowbrook Cir	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,120 (-15%)	13mo	$605,000	$285	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $284,784
• Equity at exit: $539,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $884,960
• Equity at exit: $1,163,725

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$479 /mo · $5,754/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$850
• Net cashflow: $-725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,965

Max offer price $470,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-555	+0% $-725	+5% $-894	+10% $-1,064
Rent	-10% $-1,044	-5% $-885	+0% $-725	+5% $-565	+10% $-405
Rate	-1.0pp $-423	-0.5pp $-572	base $-725	+0.5pp $-880	+1.0pp $-1,038

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3906 Brook Valley Cir Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,100	$1.28	45d	1	0.71mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	4d	1	0.84mi
3616 Wood Duck Cir Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2302	$7,500	$3.26	25d	1	0.85mi
5956 Saint Andrews Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	3345	$3,300	$0.99	45d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2017-09-07
   soldstatus $424,000
2. 2009-07-28
   soldstatus $350,000
3. 2001-10-25
   soldstatus $313,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,754 · $479/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,754 · $479/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$5,754
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,886
• − Management: −$3,886
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$19,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,692
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+35.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2017-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $424,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $313,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,754 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.