189 NE 156th St

Cross City, FL 32628

$69,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,171/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$499
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $60/mo
• Annual: $715/yr
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.81%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($715/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#412 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $70k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 4.0% in Cross City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.