The Millpond Plan

Columbia, SC 29212

$230,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,289 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 353 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,005/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-619/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-619/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?