The Millpond Plan · Columbia, SC 29212

$230,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,289 sqft · Townhouse · 353 Days on market

$46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Shaker cabinets
• $46 HOA

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• TRUE GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• SHAKER CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $230,000
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $46 (frequency not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family plan named The Millpond; New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1,289 finished square feet)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-619/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $200,497 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,371
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-67,076
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29212

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,070

Max offer price $222,540

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
174 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,875	$1.40	23d	1	0.03mi
185 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,975	$1.48	23d	1	0.13mi
193 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,975	$1.48	23d	1	0.14mi
197 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,875	$1.40	23d	1	0.15mi
200 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,975	$1.48	23d	1	0.16mi
201 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,975	$1.48	23d	1	0.16mi
204 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$1,875	$1.40	23d	1	0.16mi
208 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.17mi
210 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.18mi
209 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.18mi
211 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.18mi
212 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.18mi
213 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.18mi
214 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.18mi
215 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.19mi
220 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.19mi
217 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.19mi
222 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.20mi
219 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.20mi
221 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.20mi
224 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.20mi
223 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.21mi
226 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.21mi
225 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.21mi
228 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.21mi
227 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.21mi
230 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.21mi
229 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.22mi
232 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.22mi
231 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.22mi
234 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.22mi
233 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.22mi
235 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,025	$1.52	3d	1	0.23mi
237 Winding Chestnut Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1335	$2,125	$1.59	3d	1	0.23mi
2 Beagle Ct Irmo, SC	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,849	$1.43	11d	1	1.06mi
316 Stamport Cir Irmo, SC	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,575	$1.05	3d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 345 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 344 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 343 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 335 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 05
• NCES district ID: 4502820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,732
• Composite: 45.28/100
• National rank: #2656
• State rank: #5 of 80 in SC

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2436

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 335,994
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 27,657
• Household income: $77,142
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.55%
• Current HPI: 212.5173
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.23%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B