123 Green Valley Ests

Ellicottville, NY 14741

$115,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-45/yr
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-45/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellicottville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 245 students, 38% FRL); Ellicottville Middle School High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 310 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of potential leaks and wear.
• Major: exterior siding — Faded and worn appearance.
• Major: interior flooring — Worn and may need replacement.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Faded and may need repainting.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No specific details, but likely outdated and inefficient.
• Major: landscaping — Sparse and in need of maintenance.