123 Green Valley Ests · Ellicottville, NY 14741

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · Manufactured · 113 Days on market

Built 2006 Fair condition $100/sqft · 36% above area Est $84k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW TO THE MARKET!!! Here's your chance to own one of the only available homes in Green Valley Estates North! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers the ease and convenience of first floor amenities along with additional bonuses with the carport, deck, and storage shed! An open floor plan is great for entertaining family and friends! The spacious primary suite features a jetted tub with separate stall shower and tons of closet space! Two additional bedrooms and bathroom add to the comfort of this home! Whether you're looking for year round living or the low maintenance of weekend getaway, this home is a MUST SEE! Showings begin immediately!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR AMENITIES
• CARPORT
• DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• JETTED TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-45/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellicottville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 245 students, 38% FRL); Ellicottville Middle School High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 310 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,443
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 36.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64 Green Valley Ests	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	21mo	$109,000	$97	75
58 Green Valley Ests	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	20mo	$90,000	$80	68
15 Green Valley Ests	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-0%)	15mo	$75,000	$65	67
63 Green Valley Ests	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-3%)	12mo	$80,000	$71	61
84 Green Valley Ests	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	14mo	$92,900	$83	61
3 Green Valley Ests	0.25mi	3/2.0	980 (-15%)	17mo	$53,000	$54	49
30 Green Valley Ests	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-13%)	13mo	$60,000	$60	40
114 Green Valley Ests	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	21mo	$90,000	$70	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,014
• Equity at exit: $47,825

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $40,726
• Equity at exit: $70,815

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14741

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $114,458

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $36	+0% $-4	+5% $-43	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-46	+0% $-4	+5% $39	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $26	base $-4	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-02-28
    listed $129,900 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    NEW TO THE MARKET!!! Here's your chance to own one of the only available homes in Green Valley Estates North! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers the ease and convenience of first floor amenities along with additional bonuses with the carport, deck, and storage shed! An open floor plan is great for entertaining family and friends! The spacious primary suite features a jetted tub with separate stall shower and tons of closet space! Two additional bedrooms and bathroom add to the comfort of this home! Whether you're looking for year round living or the low maintenance of weekend getaway, this home is a MUST SEE! Showings begin immediately!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$1,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of potential leaks and wear.
• Major exterior siding — Faded and worn appearance.
• Major interior flooring — Worn and may need replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — Faded and may need repainting.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No specific details, but likely outdated and inefficient.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and in need of maintenance.
• Major windows — Old and may need replacement or caulking for energy efficiency and appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — Improves the home's structural integrity and curb appeal.
• Both New exterior siding — Enhances the home's appearance and energy efficiency.
• Both New flooring — Improves the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Repainting interior walls — Enhances the home's appearance and energy efficiency.
• Both New HVAC system — Improves energy efficiency and comfort.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and property value.
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of potential leaks and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Faded and worn appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior flooring · Worn and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Faded and may need repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No specific details, but likely outdated and inefficient.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and in need of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Old and may need replacement or caulking for energy efficiency and appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — Improves the home's structural integrity and curb appeal. ↑
• Both New exterior siding — Enhances the home's appearance and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Repainting interior walls — Enhances the home's appearance and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Improves energy efficiency and comfort. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both New windows — Improves energy efficiency and appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,957

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Current HPI: 294.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS