7407 Avenue X

Lubbock, TX 79423

$349,000C

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,808 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Active · 244 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$579
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $645/mo
• Annual: $7,744/yr
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.92%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $161/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $349k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,867/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 1385% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.