Hemingway Plan

Nampa, ID 83686

$467,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,524 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,983
• Tax + insurance: −$948
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-1,545/mo
• Annual: $-18,544/yr
• Cap rate: 3.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.64%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $159,296

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $468k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (35.5% below list).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenhurst Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #352 of 357 statewide, top 99%, 259 students, 56% FRL); South Middle School (math 24% / reading 41%, grade F, #88 of 109 statewide, top 81%, 675 students, 41% FRL); Skyview High School (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #100 of 169 statewide, top 61%, 1,152 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 1081 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.