Hemingway Plan · Nampa, ID 83686

$467,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,524 sqft · SingleFamily · 165 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The main floor of the inspired Hemingway plan showcases a convenient powder room, a spacious great room and a well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry and a center island. This level will be built with either a study or a living room and an open dining area or a charming sunroom. Upstairs, you'll find a laundry, a shared bathroom and four bedrooms, including a lavish primary suite boasting a roomy walk-in closet and a private bath that may include deluxe features. This floor will be built with either a loft or a fifth bedroom and third bathroom. Select homes will offer a gourmet kitchen and/or a relaxing covered patio. You'll love our professionally curated fixtures and finishes!

Key facts

• Study
• Open dining area
• Powder room

Tags

• POWDER ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• STUDY
• OPEN DINING AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $467,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $568,915.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $468k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenhurst Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #352 of 357 statewide, top 99%, 259 students, 56% FRL); South Middle School (math 24% / reading 41%, grade F, #88 of 109 statewide, top 81%, 675 students, 41% FRL); Skyview High School (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #100 of 169 statewide, top 61%, 1,152 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 1081 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $302,062 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.64%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $568,915
• List price: $467,990
• Delta: -17.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2305 Locust Ln	0.04mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,496 (-1%)	1mo	$699,900	$280	89
3308 S Montego Way	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,508 (-1%)	4mo	$549,900	$219	78
2657 E Basalt Ct	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,425 (-4%)	5mo	$539,900	$223	70
2733 E Melanite St	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,691 (+7%)	5mo	$640,000	$238	67
4510 S Gabbro Way	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,399 (-5%)	6mo	$749,000	$312	62
3523 S High Springs St	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,624 (+4%)	8mo	$450,000	$171	61
4482 Gabbro Way	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,309 (-8%)	2mo	$549,900	$238	60
1515 Primrose	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,371 (-6%)	9mo	$580,000	$245	56
3042 E Columbus River Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,412 (-4%)	1mo	$724,900	$301	56
2889 E Columbus River Ct	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,624 (+4%)	3mo	$799,900	$305	52
4220 Pleasant Vw	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (-11%)	3mo	$825,000	$367	44
1617 Avellino Brooke Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,251 (-11%)	15mo	$679,990	$302	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-189,806
• Equity at exit: $84,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.81×
• Total profit: $-288,690
• Equity at exit: $49,189

Cash invested: $159,296 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $529,995 ($224/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 83686

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 1081
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,983
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$711 /mo · $8,534/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-1,545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,977

Max offer price $345,300

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,152	-5% $-1,349	+0% $-1,545	+5% $-1,742	+10% $-1,939
Rent	-10% $-1,784	-5% $-1,665	+0% $-1,545	+5% $-1,426	+10% $-1,307
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,259	-0.5pp $-1,401	base $-1,545	+0.5pp $-1,693	+1.0pp $-1,843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,229
• Closing costs: $17,067
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3860 E Rock Falls St Nampa, ID	4.0	2.5	2679	$2,695	$1.01	36d	1	1.02mi
3173 S Mystic Seaport Ave Unit 1322138P Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2992	$5,849	$1.95	155d	1	1.07mi
3173 S Mystic Seaport Ave Unit 1642468P Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2325	$7,144	$3.07	1d	1	1.07mi
3391 S Rosa Parks Way Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2290	$2,450	$1.07	143d	1	1.11mi
3801 E Sutton Ave Nampa, ID	4.0	2.5	2106	$2,250	$1.07	45d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $462,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planHemingway model
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2524

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: HemingwayActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $467,990 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $467,990 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $467,990 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $467,990 Active 162 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $467,990 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $467,990 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $467,990 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $467,990 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $467,990 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $467,990 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $467,990 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $467,990 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $467,990 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $467,990 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $467,990 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $467,990 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $467,990 Active 148 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $467,990 Active 147 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $467,990 Active 146 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $467,990 Active 145 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $467,990 Active 144 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $467,990 Active 143 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $467,990 Active 142 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $467,990 Active 141 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $467,990 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $467,990 Active 139 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $467,990 Active 138 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $467,990 Active 137 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $467,990 Active 136 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $467,990 Active 135 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $467,990 Active 134 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $467,990 Active 133 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $467,990 Active 132 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $467,990 Active 131 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $467,990 Active 130 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $467,990 Active 129 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $467,990 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $467,990 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $467,990 Active 126 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $467,990 Active 125 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $467,990 Active 124 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $467,990 Active 123 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $467,990 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $467,990 Active 120 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $467,990 Active 119 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $467,990 Active 118 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $467,990 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $467,990 Active 116 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $467,990 Active 115 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $467,990 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,868
• − Property taxes: −$8,534
• − Insurance: −$2,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,900
• − Management: −$2,900
• − Depreciation: −$16,550
• Taxable loss: −$29,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good exterior and interior, and the highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the curb appeal and increase both the resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Ridge Elementary F ID #223/357 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle South Middle School F ID #88/109 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Skyview High School F ID #100/169 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nampa School District
• NCES district ID: 1602340
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,576
• Composite: 27.18/100
• National rank: #7022
• State rank: #82 of 92 in ID

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Nampa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Canyon County · 248,853 people
• City population: 142,249
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 60,993
• Household income: $86,518
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.85%
• Current HPI: 297.3608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.25%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $462,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planHemingway model
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2524

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: HemingwayActive listing